Are You Prepared for a Financial Winter?

Posted on August 16th, 2007 by Will Marre.
Categories: Leadership, Community, Lifestyle, ADP Diary.

Your flood of responses to my recent blogs on the economy made me realize what a vital topic this is. This morning I was watching another day of economic turmoil unfold on CNBC. Listening to experts tends to give me a headache in times when common sense might matter much more than expert opinion. I’m no economic expert, but common sense does seem to be quite obvious.

We’d all like to think the current escalation of foreclosures will be limited to those with “unworthy” credit. We’d all like to believe that unemployment rates will remain low. We’d all like to hope that we’ll all have money to spend in our consumer economy will keep humming even though there are plenty of dark clouds heavy with rain directly above our heads.

But what if what we’re seeing now is just the beginning of a much more fierce storm? What if the variable mortgages used by millions of middle class, good credit home buyers to get much bigger homes are going to trigger a rash of foreclosures across America’s core consumer? What if lenders, too-little-too-late efforts to bring sanity to mortgage loan standards choke off refinancing and home sales to a point that the real estate market freezes? What if we consumers cut back even 10% on our purchases of stuff we really don’t need? What if gasoline, heating, and oil rise in price again? What if business stops expanding and job lay offs become standard place? What if health care cost and the cost of war, milk, corn, and bread continue to rise? What if this is already happening? Are you prepared for a prolonged financial winter?

Maybe it won’t happen. Maybe it won’t be so bad. Maybe all our economic hype-freeze really know what they’re talking about. Maybe lenders will create 100 years mortgages to bail us out temporarily. Maybe some unexpected positive events will keep our leaky boat afloat indefinitely; no one knows.

Our global economy is more complex than our weather. Both are unpredictable. So we can just hang out and hope for the best, or we can prepare for a hurricane. One thing we can’t do is rely on experts to tell us we have nothing to worry about. They don’t know. It’s time to exercise our own good judgment to make ourselves less personally vulnerable to forces no one really controls. Nobody is going to take care of us. We‘re simply economic statistics to people who have their hands on the levers of commerce. And those folks are trying to control the weather. They are foolish enough to think they can. As for the rest of us, it seems wise to follow the advice of Winston Churchill. To paraphrase: It’s always best to plan for the thing you most don’t want to happen….in case it does.

9 comments.

Comment on August 17th, 2007.

When an 88% increase in foreclosures means 1 in 422 (less than 0.25%), then it is fair to say that the sky is not falling.

The way I see it, the current turmoil is going to hurt Wall Street much more than it will Main Street, and this is how it should be.

The rich have imbibed in investing in CDOs and synthetic CDOs to make a profit. This created liquidity for lenders, who induced the poor and lower middle class to buy houses and condos. This was their first investment in the American Dream, and it will probably end well for the vast majority of them.

Further, if you notice the states hurt in the MSNBC link above, the biggest fallout is in the state that have been most aggressive in attacking illegal immigration. (Georgia, Colorado)

The vast majority of immigrants come here because they want to work and prosper. Let’s fix the border and find rational way to import necessary labor. But if you a buy a house here, you want a piece of the American Dream. Why be so silly as to try to chase these fine folks away?

Larry
Comment on August 17th, 2007.

I believe the biggest threat to our ecomomy and even our national security is the amount of US dept held by the Chinese and Japanese. If they decided to stop buying US debt at low interest rates, all bets are off….

P.N.
Comment on August 17th, 2007.

The economic situation we find ourselves in currently is not as dire as the fine folks at CNBC would lead you to believe. The growing foreclosures are a simple market result from some bad business deals that were entered into by the mortgage companies and their customers. A booming economy (which we are actually experiencing) leads to a sort of feeding frenzy where excited consumers want more than they can afford, and greedy mortgage companies lower their standards to scoop up the rise in demand. Their feeding off each other over the past several years is why we are seeing the rise in foreclosures.
A couple weeks ago the FED met and decided to hold interest rates at current levels. This was because (in their opinion) the economy was growing at a good steady pace. Lowering the rate would have spurred more feeding frenzy and raising it would actually stall the economy and increase inflation. The FED has been slowly raising rates over the past two years in attempts to slow the economy down!
Just because a consumer has good credit doesn’t mean they have good sense when pursuing the American dream, or financing a house, the largest expense associated with that dream. Taking a variable rate mortgage when rates are at historic lows is plain stupid, that’s when fixed loans should be locked into. The sub prime market exists to provide a service to consumers considered higher risks. The sub prime consumers pay higher rates for this service, and the lenders assume the higher risk in order to earn the higher rates. When you have a mix of variable rate loans with sub prime consumers in a booming economy with historically low (but rising) interest rates, you have a perfect storm forming for foreclosures.
The bottom line is that the folks at CNBC would have you believe that the sky is falling economically when actually only a market correction is taking place. The only ones being affected by it are the ones who made bad choices that were driven by simple greed. A financial winter will only occur if government steps in front of the economic train causing it to derail.

Lassiter
Comment on August 17th, 2007.

The problem, with the USA economy,as well as the global eceonomy of the world, is that the welfare of the many is controlled by the actions of a few. The few being the ones with the most influence, political clout and wealth. The question is how do we, who are the many, impact the actions of the wealty, the well connected, the influential, the political in crowd? I would submit that we, who are the many, are not well informed for a number of reasons. We don’t know what we don’t know until it’s too late. How do we overcome this challenge and become more well informed? Can someone point to sources of information, data, that could be easily accessible, meaningful, and credible?

Linda FS
Comment on August 19th, 2007.

Let your Heart Not be worried!
First of all 98.02% of the houseing market is just fine! That is written in stone, OK?
Next, STOP NOW listening & believing in the “Drive By Media”!!!!!!!
They absotutley are on Purpose trying & apparently accomplishing FEAR & DOUBT in the American & Worldwide population!
They WANT you to FAIL they WANT you to DOUBT! Why? So they can CONTROLL THE MASSES! It is all Political!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fear & Doubt are the works of Evil, the Devil, etc. It is in your FEELINGS!
Pluck It Out Now! Never look back, and for God sake look at who & what is talking! A bunch of numb nuts!
You are in the driver’s seat along with God Almighty!
God does NOT FAIL! God does not FEAR!
Only we very small PUNY humans that have the arrogance to think we know it all do that!
The News Media doesn’t know either, but “BY HYPNOTIC CONTROL” they control the masses! I will say it again & again, “HYPNOTIC CONTROL”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Where for heavens sake is your COMMON SENSE?
GOD IS IN CHARGE! WORK WITH THAT ALMIGHTY POWER IN YOUR LIFE!
DO NOT GIVE THIS SINISTER FORCE ONCE OUNCE OF CREDIABILITY!
Just because they say it is true? BULL!!!!
We are FREE Human Beings! We are Americans! We are Founded IN GOD! We are GOD’S Children! Therefore WE HAVE GOD POWERS! WEALTH IS A NATURAL STATE OF MIND IN GOD’S CHILDREN!
YOU CANNOT SERVE & BELIEVE IN THE POWER OF GOD BY DIVIDING YOUR ATTENTION! AND THAT IS WHAT YOU ARE DOING, BY WATCHING THE “HYPNOTIC CONTROL” THAT THE MEDIA HAS OVER US!
FREEDOM IS NOT FREE! WE MUST ALWAYS BE ALERT! AND GUARD EVERY INSTANT THAT FREEDOM! AND FIGHT FOR IT ALWAYS!
TURN THE CHANNEL OR TURN THE TV OFF!
IT IS PURE POISON! YOU HAVE FALLEN RIGHT INTO THE TRAP! FIX IT NOW! Besides the Stock Market is the Biggest Gamble! Bigger than Las Vegas! Only Fools let it control their Fortunes!
We all have a Divine Plan laid out for us, given to us by GOD! Ask and You will recieve it!
Better yet you already have it! Now is not the time to question it!
Pray for your Country! For her protection & prosperity, and Defend her at every turn! Give Thanks every second of they day that you were BORN FREE!
Work God and he will Bless you beyond your Dreams!
Dreams turn into Faith, Faith turns into Reality!
Now Live In the Arms of God’s Love! And just do the Right thing with your life Energy & Feelings! They Are POWER! They CREATE!
And by they way, God WANTS EVERYONE TO BE WEALTHY! Poverty is un-acceptable!
In Fact you already are Wealthy just knowing that God Beats Your Heart!
If you are troubled, well then: “PEACE BE STILL AND KNOW THAT “IAM” GOD!”
Do you really understand that you say “I AM” this or that all day long? Only the enity that can say “I AM” is one that IS a Child of God! Understanding that God lives with in and above him!
WATCH what you say after saying “I AM”…. that you only decree good into your life! If you go around saying “I AM” broke or sick or full of fear, By God you will get what you asked for! If you believe in the HYPNOTIC CONTROL of negative suggestions you will let into your life! Cast it out NOW! And NEVER DO IT AGAIN!
Be in this world, but not OF this world!
Made in America! By God’s Grace!

Robert Anderson
Comment on August 20th, 2007.

When I served in Germany (defending freedom) I noticed the truly grand homes that even average Germans routinely built. I asked my neighbor Max and he told me in a very few German and English words.

“You Americans pay for nearly 3/4 of our defense budget PLUS all you soldiers and wives and children contribute billions to our daily economy. The smart German government uses this cash-flow to provide 100-year mortgages at low rates instead of the foolish 30-year “rentals” you Americans have at home.

Oh…now I get it! They are buying and we just rent. After all how many houses fall down after the 30-year mortgage is paid off?. Most homes last several hundred years if cared for AND go up in value…so why don’t we have 100-year mortgages with smaller monthly payments and INVEST FOR THE LONG HAUL like they always tell us?

TomK
Comment on August 20th, 2007.

A large part of our problem in this country is that so much information that is available is controlled by a few large corporate media conglomerates of one sort or another like GE. Their position as global business players and dependence on advertizing tends to slant their information distribution in order to protect their interests - any business would do the same. Not to say that you cant get some good information from the mainstream media, but I prefer more independent kinds of sources that are not highly dependent on corporate advertising. I personally like independent community radio stations like the Pacifica Network and internet sites like Truthout.org to name a couple. You really need to use a variety of sources today to get a clearer and broader view of the world.

TomK
Comment on August 21st, 2007.

I don’t really know if this is the beginning of the end of the American Empire, but I do know its coming. When she falls, the really sad thing is that few countries will come to her aid and many will fall with her. Think we have many allies? They have all been bought off, and when we are no longer able to pay our bills they will drop us like a bad habit.

Haven’t we done a lot of good in the world? Yes.but that was in the past and we have since become arrogant and selfish. We expect all the other countries to continually support our rich consumer lifestyles by lending us money, and the more they lend the more we need. Sooner or later they will get tired of our unending conquests for oil and resources and our selfish refusal to reduce our contributions to global warming as many other nations suffer the consequences.

At the height of the Roman Empire 1,000,000 people lived in Rome - one of the greatest cities man had yet created. After the collapse, 100,000 remained. Toward the end, Rome had to hire MERCENARIES to fight her battles and played enemies off one another to maintain control. Sound familiar? When she ran out of money, these various tribes united and turned on Rome itself. As the Bible says, ‘Pride Cometh before the FAll. Unfortunately, these vital lessons are always eventually lost in the ashes of history.

The rising and falling of empires runs like the tides. Natural cycles are a basic laws that teach us that whatever rises will peak and eventually fall, whatever comes in will eventually go out. The natural world requires balance, and when things get out of kilter there must be rectification. Yet, in his arrogance, man always believes he can outsmart ‘nature’ or God if you prefer, and beat the odds.

The biblical message for the ages was the Fall of Babylon which represents any major national power which becomes drunken with its own material excess:

Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come. (18:11) And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more: (18:12) The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble, (18:13) And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men. (18:14) And the fruits that thy soul lusted after are departed from thee, and all things which were dainty and goodly are departed from thee, and thou shalt find them no more at all. (18:15) The merchants of these things, which were made rich by her, shall stand afar off for the fear of her torment, weeping and wailing, (18:16) And saying, Alas, alas, that great city, that was clothed in fine linen, and purple, and scarlet, and decked with gold, and precious stones, and pearls! (18:17) For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off, (18:18) And cried when they saw the smoke of her burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!

CT
Comment on August 30th, 2007.

You havnt got many allies because you dont deserve many allies. Thsi myth of American virtue and exceptionalism living on your gradparent repuation while stealing your childrens inheritance. The people of the world are deaf from dishonest rhetoric , America has become the rogue state and the worlds greatest threat to the future of humanity. Tell youself all your stories and myths, but can you look really really hard at what you have become and what you the ideals you stand for, America is no longer the leader of the freeworld, its moral authority has withered as it is overcome with greed.

Americans are 300m among 7Billion people at it is time that the American people tendered to its onw country, you have lost the ears , hearts and minds of good hearted intelligent men and woman around the world, we know now that our future does not rest on the path of the American example.

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